Historical context on market concentration, inflation, housing, and the economic forces that shape daily life. Data for understanding, not advice.
⚠️ This page is informational and educational — not financial, investment, or legal advice.
📈
Market Forces
🦇
BATMMAAN Rules Everything
8 stocks now dominate the S&P 500
~40%
of the S&P 500's market cap
Just 8 companies out of 500
AVGO
Broadcom
AAPL
Apple
TSLA
Tesla
MSFT
Microsoft
META
Meta
AMZN
Amazon
GOOGL
Alphabet
NVDA
Nvidia
Top 10 Concentration Over Time
2010
~19%
2024
~38%
Historical avg: ~24% (1980–2010)~2x in 14 years
~85%
of S&P 500 gains since Nov 2024 election came from these 8 stocks
Index fund investors now have significant AI exposure — whether they intended to or not.
Historical context:
"Diversified" index funds aren't so diversified anymore
8 stocks ≈ 40% weight, 492 stocks ≈ 60%
All 8 are AI-related (chips, cloud, platforms)
This concentration level was last seen in the early 1990s
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Market Data, public index filings, historical concentration research (Dec 2025)
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📈
Time in the Market
$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over time
~$550K+
$10K invested in 1980 → today
~10% average annual return (nominal, with dividends reinvested)
1980
$10K
Start
1990
$35K
+250%
2000
$150K
+1,400%
2010
$130K
Dot-com + 2008
2020
$320K
+3,100%
2024
$550K+
+5,400%
⚠️ The Cost of Missing Out
~50% less
Missing just the 10 best trading days over 20 years could cut your returns roughly in half
Time in the market has historically beaten timing the market.
This chart shows historical S&P 500 index performance for context. Returns reflect index-level data and do not account for individual investor behavior, fees, taxes, or timing decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Sources: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historical estimates (Dec 2025)
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💸
Cost of Living
📉
U.S. Inflation (CPI) Over Time
Consumer Price Index, 1970–2024
Inflation tends to move in waves rather than straight lines. This chart shows how overall consumer prices have changed over time, highlighting periods when inflation accelerated — including the 1970s–80s and the post-2020 spike.
Prices in 2024 are roughly 8 times higher than in 1970 (CPI 38.8 → ~314)
CPI reflects average price changes across a broad basket of goods and services and may not match individual household experience. The index uses 1982–84 as its base period (= 100).
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). FRED (Dec 2025)
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📰
The 1996 Ad That "Predicted" Today
A retirement ad's inflation projections vs reality
In 1996, a TIAA-CREF magazine ad projected future prices to encourage retirement planning — a burger at $16, a car at $65K. The ad has gone viral as people compare it to today's prices.
Item
1996
Ad's 2026
Actual ~2024
📊
🍔Burger & Fries
~$4
$16
~$12–18
😬 Close
🚗New Car
~$18K
$65K
~$48K
📉 Under
✈️Vacation
~$3K
$12.5K
~$5–8K
📉 Under
🏠Median Home
~$120K
N/A
~$420K
🔥 Worse
🏠 The One They Didn't Predict
~250%
Housing outpaced general inflation significantly — median home prices rose from ~$120K to ~$420K
The ad was marketing, not a forecast — but it illustrates how compound inflation adds up over decades.
Historical cultural examples like this ad illustrate how inflation has been communicated — not formal economic forecasts. CPI reflects average price changes across a broad basket of goods and may not match individual experience. Prices vary significantly by location, quality, and time period.
Sources: TIAA-CREF ad (1996), BLS CPI-U, NAR median home prices. Estimates and ranges (Dec 2025)
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📊
What Drove Inflation?
CPI Components, 2000–2024 (2000 = 100)
Inflation isn't evenly distributed across categories. Housing and services have played an outsized role in recent inflation, while other categories fluctuate more dramatically. Education and medical costs have consistently outpaced overall inflation.
300
230
160
90
200020052010201520202024
Education+195%
Medical Care+119%
Housing+110%
Food+85%
Energy+68%
🎯 Growth Since 2000
Education
+195%
Medical Care
+119%
Housing
+110%
Food
+85%
Energy
+68%
CPI category weights and definitions change over time. Component trends are shown for directional insight. Energy prices are highly volatile and influenced by global factors. Education includes tuition, fees, and childcare.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Component Indices. FRED (Dec 2025)
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🔁
How Long Prices Take to Double
The compounding effect of inflation rates
Small differences in inflation rates compound over time. Even modest inflation can dramatically change what things cost over a generation.
2%
~36years
Fed target rate
3%
~24years
Historical average
5%
~14years
Elevated inflation
7%
~10years
2022 peak territory
📐 The Rule of 72
72 ÷ inflation rate ≈ years to double
A quick way to estimate how long until prices double at any given rate
Illustrative examples only. Actual inflation varies year to year and compounds unevenly. The Rule of 72 provides rough estimates — real-world doubling times depend on fluctuating rates over time.
Based on standard compounding formulas. Context: BLS CPI historical ranges (Dec 2025)
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🏠
The Pressure Points
📈
Interest Rates Over Time
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate, 1972–2024
Interest rates quietly shape how expensive everyday life feels. Even when prices stabilize, higher rates increase monthly costs for housing, cars, and credit — amplifying the impact of inflation.
16%
12%
8%
4%
19721980198519952005201520212024
💸 Same $320K Loan, Different Rates
3%
2021 rates
$1,349/mo
~$486K total paid
7%
2023–24 rates
$2,129/mo
~$766K total paid
+$280K
A 4-point rate increase adds ~$280K in total interest on the same loan
Rates shown for historical context only. Individual borrowing costs vary by credit profile, loan type, and market conditions. Monthly payment examples assume 30-year fixed rate, principal and interest only.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, FRED (Dec 2025)
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🏢
Rent Growth vs Median Income
Indexed comparison, 1984–2024 (1984 = 100)
Rent has risen faster than incomes in many periods, especially in large metro areas. This gap helps explain why housing feels like the biggest financial strain — even for people whose pay has increased.
400
300
200
100
198419901995200020052010201520202024
Rent Index
Median Income
📈 The Growing Gap (Since 1984)
+295%vs+138%
Rent growth vs Income growth
~157 pts
Gap between rent and income growth — rent outpaced income by more than 2x
Rent and income trends vary significantly by region and household situation. National averages are shown for context. CPI Rent of Primary Residence measures contract rent for renter-occupied housing units. Median household income is inflation-adjusted.
Sources: BLS CPI Rent of Primary Residence, Census Bureau Median Household Income. FRED (Dec 2025)
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💼
Median Wages vs Inflation
Full-time workers, indexed 1984–2024 (1984 = 100)
When wages grow more slowly than prices, purchasing power erodes. This chart compares median wages for full-time workers with inflation — representing the middle of the pack, not the top or bottom.
300
230
160
90
198419901995200020052010201520202024
Median Wages
CPI (Inflation)
+210%
Nominal wage growth since 1984
+199%
Inflation over same period
📊 The Nuance
Aggregate data shows median wages have roughly kept pace with inflation since 1984. But this masks significant variation — housing, healthcare, and education costs have outpaced overall inflation, while wages vary widely by occupation, region, and education level.
⚠️ Meanwhile, at the Bottom
$7.25
Federal minimum wage
15 yrs
Unchanged since 2009
~32% lost to inflation — $7.25 in 2009 had the purchasing power of ~$10.61 today
The longest period without a federal minimum wage increase since it was established in 1938. Many states have set higher minimums, but 20 states still use the federal floor.
Median wages shown are for full-time wage and salary workers (16+). Trends vary widely by occupation, industry, region, and experience. Minimum wage data from U.S. Department of Labor.
Sources: BLS Median Usual Weekly Earnings (full-time workers), CPI-U, DOL Wage and Hour Division. FRED (Dec 2025)
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🏠
The Shifting American Dream
Homeownership keeps getting pushed back
First-Time Buyers
38
Median age (was 29 in 1981)
All Buyers
56
Median age (was 31 in 1981)
📉 30-Year-Olds: Married + Homeowner
~52%→~14%
1960 vs 2024 — a generation-defining shift
Buyer Age Over Time
1981
29
31
1991
28
31
2001
32
39
2011
31
39
2024
38
56
First-time buyer
All buyers
The "starter home" buyer is now nearly 40. The average buyer is closer to retirement than college.
Housing experiences vary significantly by region, household income, and local market conditions. Median ages reflect NAR survey data and represent broad national patterns, not individual outcomes. Marriage and homeownership rates are influenced by many factors beyond housing costs.
Sources: NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2024, U.S. Census Bureau, public research. Estimates (Dec 2025)
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📊 Methodology — How this is built
This page visualizes publicly available economic and market data for historical context. We use gold-standard sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, National Association of Realtors (NAR), and U.S. Census Bureau.
Market data reflects index-level performance, not individual investor returns. Inflation data (CPI-U) represents average price changes across a broad basket of goods and may not match individual household experience. Housing data reflects national medians and varies significantly by region.
Historical cultural examples (like the 1996 TIAA-CREF ad) illustrate how inflation has been communicated over time — they are not formal economic forecasts.
This page is about understanding economic conditions — not telling anyone what to buy, sell, or do.
⚠️ This content is informational and educational and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
All data from public sources. Individual charts cite specific sources.